Hawa ceelalloola

CMIP6

Foocâ fanah takku waytah tan caaloota, mango modelitteh addat tan rosqâ baxsitte kee rosqâ milaagih taqabitte cedoonuh, CMIP6 mango modelitte elle tan innal (coupled model intercomparison project) edde yantifiqen. CMIP “model dadal kee saynis maqnisso Ardi sissinaaneh addat geytimta kaxxa barnaamiji” (WCRP-Climate) Baadak Hawa Fokkaaqoh Barnaamijih (WCRP) Taama Butta Coupled Modeling (WGCM) kinni. Baad caddol 30 daga takke buttaati edde angaluk, 21 model intercomparison projectitte baadal tan qilmih fokkaaqoh porograamak Grand Challenges kee CMIP6 fundamental science esseroora elle tamixxigeh tan innal qimmisseh. Model simulations kaadu baad caddol rosqâ kusaaqitte kee walalittel, IPCC kusaaqih gabbaaqul kusaaqimteh.

ISIMIP3b

Webportal ClimateImpactsOnline wagsiisak sissin qaynatih ISIMIP3b sissin qaynatih oytitte elle geytimtah tan sissin sekteritteh addat geytimta sissin qaynatih oytitte (ISIMIP) sissin qaynatih oytitte elle geytimta. oyti arac kak yanim asli GCM oyta, CMIP6 archive yeyyeeqeenih. uncus massos kee loowo salac ISIMIP3BASD kee W5E5 v2.0. abbinotteh sugte ( Lange, 2019a, 2020). Industirih uddur (1601-1849), aydaadi (1850-2014) kee foocâ fanah (2015-2100) caaloota CMIP6 sissin modelitteh addat geytimta. CMIP6 sinaariyoh addat tan ISIMIP3b ciggiltah tan: naharsi inxastarih lowsis gibbatu (piKontrol), aydaadu, ssp126 (SSP1-RCP2.6), ssp370 (SSP3-RCP7) kee ssp585 (SSP5-RCP8.5). milallaagimiyyi ISIMIP3b edde anuk xayi-baaxo ramad le uynan, xayi-baaxo baxsa le uynan, xayi-baaxo silayti sissikaane, ayrol fayyale niqna, ayrol yaanam laqna, ayrol addah tan niqna, xer mooyat oobiyyi diifi, ux mooyat oobiyyi diifi, arroqlê gutqo kee Amolladi robti radimi.

ceelalloola addatinol

rosqâ wale, CMIP6 cugaysoh exxak teyna, 2018 cabbimte. toh kak tanim:
"aerosol: abnisso ( aerosol edde anuk saanih taqabi), qaran: GFDL-AM4.1 ( kuubed-isfer (c96)- 1 digri migaq tabaatabta fidga; 360 x 180 xexxar/ latitude; 49 caddooda; dagah caddo 1 Pa), qaran Chem: GFDL-ATMCHEM4.1 (kibnele hawa kemistiri), ardi: GFDL-LM4.1 (ardi moodeli qusba coox daynaamik moodeli qaddoysaanam coox qumri kee fayya le xisne kee ballaaqê maykorobitte, ayrol girah, buqre, qayso, kee qayso tile), ardiIce: GFDL-LM4. .1, gayya: GFDL-OM4p5 (GFDL-MOM6, sidiica ximmo- migaq 0.5 digri; 720 x 576 xexxar/ xexxaaral 75 caddooda; dagah exxah miili 0-2 m), oknBgkeem: GFDL-SIM4p5 (GFDL-SIS2.0, sidiica ximmo- migaq 0.5 xexxaaral; 720 x xexxar/57; 5 raawoowi; categories), raadiyeeshin tatrusiyya kee C-giriid daynaamik MOM6 luk sittat axawah tan. : 100km, qaran: 100km, atmoskeem: 100km, ardi: 100km, ardi barad: 100km, gayya: 50km, oknBgkeem: 50km, baddi barad: 50km."
Raceena: CMIP6.CMIP.IPSL.IPSL-CM6A-LR

IPSL-CM6A-LR rosqah wale 2017 cabbimtem kee kalah CMIP cugaysoh exxa kinni. ceelol edde anuk agleelima: " atmos: LMDZ ( NPv6, N96; 144 x 143 xexxar/ baar; 79 caddooda; dagah caddo 80000 m), ardi: orchidee ( v2.0, lee/ karboon/ cayli caalat), gayya: NEMO -OPA (eORCA1.3, sidiica ximmo aakam 1digri; 362× 332 xexxar/baar; 75 caddooda; fidgaagi: hawa: 250km, ardi: 250km, gayya: 100km, oknBgkeem: 100km, baddi arroqle: 100km."
Raceena: CMIP6.CMIP.IPSL.IPSL-CM6A-LR

MPI-ESM edde anuk amo ladi meekoh ceelalloola silaytuu kee gayya, ECHAM6 ( ispektaral T127; 384 x 192 xexxar/ xexxaaral; 95 caddooda; dagah caddo 0.01 hPa) kee MPIOM ( sidiica ximmo TP04, fayramol x42deg 404 xexxar/baxsa le caddo; dagah exxah seeli 0-12 m), kee ardi kee coox daabisiyyih modelitte JSBACH3.20 kee baddi biyo-geokimistri HAMOCC6. toh gexsittam Maksi pilanki inistitute meteorolojih, hamburg 20146, garman (MPI-M) baaxoh addah migaq fidgaagi: "aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, ardi: 100 km, ardi barad: ulim, gayya: 50 km, oknBgkeem: 50 km, baddi arroqle: 50 km."
Raceena: CMIP6. Fayya le Raddi MIP.MPI-M.MPI-ESM1-2-HR

MRI-ESM2.0 Model Sanat 2017 Fanah Gexak Sugteeh, Jappaanal Geytimta Meteorolojih Fokkaaqoh Exxal Geytimta. toh edde anuk ciggiltah tan exxaaxi: "aerosol: MASINGAR mk2r4 (TL95; 192 x 96 xexxar/baar; 80 caddo; dagah caddo 0.01 hPa), atmos: MRI-AGCM3.5 (TL159; 320 x 160 xexxar/baar caddo; 80 caddo; fayyale caddo 0.01 hPa), qaran keemik: MRI-CCM2.1 (T42; 128×64 xexxar/baar; 80 caddooda; fayyale caddo 0.01 hPa), ardi: HAL 1.0, gayya: MRI.COM4.4 ( sidiica xigri qimmol 0.5 digri xexxar/1 xigri xexxar addah meeridiyoonal maysaasah 0.3 digriik 10 digriik kilbat kee gabbi addat ekuwaater; 360 x 364 xexxaaral/ latitude; 61 caddo; 250km, qaran: 100km, qaran keem: 250km, ardi: 100km, gayya: 100km, keemik: 100km, baddi barad: 100km."
Raceena: CMIP6.CMIP.MRI.MRI-ESM2-0

UKESM1 NEMO baddi model kee CICE baddi-barad, tonnah kaadu JULES baaxoh addah model, TRIFFID daynaamik coox luk. Toh tonnal anuk, tama model UKCA, MEDUSA luk baddi biyo-geokimistri kee BISICLES model luk daynaamik ice-sheets celsiisak atmosferik kemistiri kee aerosol celsiisak geytima. Raceena: UKESM

Raceenaani:

Hawa caaloota

Awlaytiinoh Hangi Gititte (RCPs) deqsitta, Doolat Fanat Yan Hawa Milaagih Caagiidal (IPCC) 5haytô Fokkaaqoh Gabbaaqul Bicsen. Usun baxaabaxsale caddoh greenhouse gaas-induced radiation drives 2011 ilaa 2100 fanah takkem bictah tanim baxxaqisan, takkay immay, ken xaqut gexaanamih taagah, ayyuntiinô maddur “narratives” akah takkennah abaanam maduudan. Tatre sanat, baadal tan qilmih saynis, qidaddo kee enerjih sissinaaneh modelitte, baadal tan ayyuntiino, demograafi kee qidaddo, ciggilta bool karmah addat, mannal milaagimam xiqqimtam elle kusaaqissah tan qusba “gititte” bicsen. Oson “Ayyuntiinô qidaddoh gititte” (SSPs) axcuk yamixxigen. SSPs 2017 (Riahi et al., 2017) addat yewqeh yan IPCC 6haytô fokkaaqoh gabbaaqul 2021/2022 addat kaxxa doori digirta.

SSPs yaanam rakiiboh yan sinaariyoy, qusba rosqâ poliisitteh addat, asaaku edde nan waktil, fooca fanah takku wayta dadal baxxaqissa. Oson baad beyam duuda koona gita xayyoosan. Koona SSPs baxsa luk ummattâ qallih taama, magaalol xisne, qidaddo dadal, barittoo kee qaafiyat caddol investimentitte, enerjih sissinaane kee ardi lowsis, teknoloojih dadalih caddo kee kalah kaadu faxximta lowsis, axcih manô qaynat milaagitte (Riahi et al., 2017).

RCPs kinniimih taagah SSPs kaadu sinni designitte gaba kaltam madudda, tamah dubuh ayyuntiinô foociino kinniimih taagah rosqâ milaagih taqabitte edde anuk. mangoomuk, uli salcisiyyi hinnay massos maaqattooti too abbinotteh ( O'Neill et al., 2020). Tohih taagah, ClimateImpactsOnline sidiica SSP–RCP ittat axawah tan sissin ayyuntiinô maddur kee radiation sissinaaneh addat tan sissinaaneh oytitte elle tamixxigeh tan innal.

"Sarrimaane" SSP1-2.6

"Rakaakay Qalayli" SSP3-7.0

"Raddimte siraglele daddos" SSP5-8.5

SSP oyti rakiibo

Ayyuntiinoo kee qidaddoh gititte tasgalle (SSPs): amolladih mabul (takreena)
Raceenaani:

O'niil, BC, karter, TR, ibi, K. kee kalah tanim. rosqâ milaagih sinaariyoh rakissoh agdaabee kee fayxitte. Nat. Kiliim. Milaagu. 10, 1074-1084 (2020). doy.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00952-020

Riahi, K. et al., Ayyuntiinô maddur gititte kee ken cayla, ardi qaynat, kee laqna qaynat: Inkih tan lowsis, Baad caddol dariifah milaagih qaynat, 42haytô footimal, 153-168 (2017). 2016.05.009

mayballah oyta

W5E5 oyti daffeyna kak tanim wagitto kee qagitak makeelisso oyta kee wagsiisen oyti awlissuh xoqoysil asele. tah xaggimte ceeloh qeedaalissoh cugayso (ISIMIP3b) exxa, oyti daffeyna xaggimte kusaaqitteh baxsa le massos edde yantifiqen. oyti daffeyna kak takkem ardi rakiibo WFDE5 oyti kee baddi rakiibo ERA5 oyti daffeyna ( oyti kee qagitak makeelisso oyti) (Cucchi kee kalah tan., 2020, Hersbach kee kalah tan., 2020). Ossotinah oyti raceena robti oyti 2.3 addat yan robti oyti baadal robti weeloh cugayso (Adler et al., 2003).

W5E5 version 1.0 1979 ilaa 2017 fanah yan waktih oytitte edde anuk, tamah yaanam 2011-2020 fanah yan sanat dubuh 6 sanat kinnim kee tonnah kaadu baxsa le karta 1991-2014 fanah yan waktih addat dubuh yan. Nanu tabna liggidih addat W5E5 ossotina oyta garuq sinnim usqussubnam kee angaarawenno. oyti daffeyna xayyoysam tabaatabta aracih fidga 0.5° kee ayrol waktih fidga.
oyti daffeynah addat tan milallaagimiyyitte ciggiltam kaani: ramad le uynan baarih xaqut ( uxxuk: hurs, unit: %), baxsa le uynan baarih xaqut (huss, kg kg-1), robti radimi (pr, kg m-2 s-1). ), barad radimih cayxi ( prsn, kg m-2 s-1), baarih silayti gutqo ( ps, Pa), baddi caddoh gutqo (psl, Pa), oobisaanam xer mooyat dagah diifi (rlds, W m-2), oobisaanam ux mooyat dagah diifi (rsds, W m-2), xayi-baarih silayti sissika (sfcWind, m s-1), xayi-baarih silayti laqna (tas, K), ayrol fayyale xayi-baax silayti laqna (tasmax, K), ayrol dagna xayi-baax silayti niqna ( tasmiin, k), baarih fayya ( orog, m) kee WFDE5-ERA5 santi saro ( santi saro, 1) ( lange, 2019). W5E5 oyti milallaagu, ardi kee gayyal, ayrol saaqatal WFDE5 oyti. Ardi milallaagih hurs, pr, psl, tasmax kee tasmin kee baddi milallaagih tasmax kee tasmin baxaabaxsale cisaabal geytima. tah baxxaaqissam ciggiila weebsaayitil: WFDE5 ardi amol ERA5 lih gayya (W5E5)

"Obsevations" axcuk doorak, Taariikih Oytih exxal, W5E5 oytih exxal wagsiisen oyti tablem duddah.

Raceenaani:

adler,arf,hafmaan,gj,changi,a.ferraaro,r.shiye,p.-p.janowiyak,j.,nelkin,e.(2003). bicsa-2 baadal robti robti cugayso (GPCP) alsi robti makeelisso (1979–awayih uddur). Haydrometeroloojih majallata, 4(6), 1147-1167. doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:tvgpcp>2.0.ko;2.
Kuuchi,M.,weedon,GP,Amiisi,A.,Beloyin,N.Lange,S.,muler shimiyed,H.hersibach,H.kee Buontempo,C (2020). WFDE5: uncus massooweh ERA5 qagitak makeelisso oyti kusaaqitteh taqabi. Ardi maknayih missoh oyta, 12(3), 2097-2120. doy.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020
hersibach, h., beel, b., berrisforxi, p., hirahara, s., horani, a., munos-sabater, j., nikolas, j., peyubey, si., raadu, r., shepers, D ., simooni, A., Ayyuntiino, C., Qabdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtolxi, P., Biyavati,G.,bidlot,J.,bonavita,M.,...Tepawut,JN (2020). ERA5 baad qagi makeelisso. Rubqi sanatih xaagi warkat, 146(730), 1999–2049. 10.1002/QJ.3803
Lange, Istefan (2019): WFDE5 ardi amol ERA5 lih gayya amol yengele (W5E5). V. 1.0. GFZ Oyti Ayfaafayitte. doy.org/10.5880/pik.2019.023
Lange, S.: ISIMIP3BASD v2.4.1, 10.5281/zenoxo.3898426, 2020

Aydaadi ceelissoh oyta

rosqâ ceelalloola cedoonuh, taturte rosqâ caaloota celsis kee wagsiisen oytit qeedaalisan. Modelittek foocâ fanah rosqâ porojektitteh numma diggoysoonuh muhimmik tan ascossi, baadal tan mean surface temperature (simulated temporal kee spatial change) kinnih tanim kee sissin qaynatih laqna elle tamixxigeh tan uddur kee awayih uddur fanah.

culmah gatbarah exxa gabat agle lem ceelol qeedaalisso cugayso ( caddo 6) aydaadi ceelo. Fokkaaqo, Fokkaaqo, kee Klima (DECK) celsiisenta CMIP kee baxsale qaynatih fanat meqe baxsitte, ta caalatal CMIP6. oson kalah ayfaf yaceen benchmarki CMIP6- faaticimte ceelol qeedaalisso cugaysoosa (MIPs).

celsis qimmiseh annaak qeedalsim caalatak naharal inxastarih lowsiisih gibbatu ( piKontrol). Tokkeek, baxaabaxsale waktil sissin caylitte, CMIP6 luk sittat axawah tan, axcih, greenhouse gaas lowsiisih, ardi lowsiisih caylitte, aerosol, solar lowsiisih caylitte kee kalah tan modelitte fanah culsan. toh lakal aydaadi caalootak wadirsi gino. CMIP6 aydaadi ceeloh uddur reebissa 1850 ilaa 2014 fan.

Raceenaani:

Bandi fidna

rakaakay rosqah moodelih butta tan Impact3b celtam qunxa. Tohih taagah model asmat sinna kee addah (liggida-sanat) baxsi ittat xayyoowak, uxxuk kee qimmoh addah 10%, 50% kee 90% inkih tan qimmoh addah, baxxaaqissam bandwidths (50s percentile kartal , 10s, 50s kee 90s boolta uddur ittallakleh muuci).

sanatih uddur kee model ensemble 4 simulation, tamah yaanam poolitte 5 x 30 = 150 sanat qimmoh addah qimmoh addah qimmoh addah qimmoh addah poolitte.