Rakiiboh rosqah oyta

Garman kee Bavariyah qusba oyti

2025, ciggiltah tan ossotina luk asqassaabe sugte:

• - rosqâ oytih rakiibo 2020 fan wagittoh uddur tusqussubimeh.
• - Hawa modelih kobox ossotinah modelih arda (Euro-Cordex) luk ossimteh sugteeh, aydaadi celsiisenta edde anuk fiddinowteh sugte.
• - uncus massos celsis oyti xayyooweh suge qari addah softiweerit duqaysimak.
• xaloot oyti culeh meqe firqanfiir fan, topograafih weeloola akkaawontit haak.

Baxsitte

2019 xabba haanam edde yantifiqen Impact2C dataset fanat yan baxsi, RCP8.5 sinaariyoh addat 17 addah yan model ensemble kinni. sanatih addat doorimte rosqâ ascossih xalootih istaatistiksi tohih taagah 30x17=510 sanatih qimmo (120 aftok) elle rakittam. qeedaalissol, cankâ ascossih dadalal kaxxa baxsitte tanim bictah.

Jarmanal sanatal 11°C ilaa 14°C fanah yan laqnah caddo (RCP8.5 ilaa 2100) fanah yan. kaxxa baxsi yanbulle laqin ayroorah ixximal. Awayih oytih addat, caddo 30 ayrok addah tan. naharal, toh dagoom 20 ayrok daga sugte Jarmanal.

mango cediyyi butta kalah amo ladi robti raddal diihay le. mango ceelalloola tan, kaxxa baxsi caddo liggidi robti radimih addat. Fantiitah, dadal aydaadi caddol raaqele. faxennal, mango caylale rob kee fayyale caddo laqnah caddo xer kafin waktitteh fayxi.

mayballah oyti: 1961-2020

1961 xabba haanam DWD fanteenaanih retteemah exxah sugteh tan fokkaaqoh fanteenaani dubuk wagitto oytitte elle qimmisseh sugte. toh edde anuk fayramol 220 sinoptiik guddaaqa kee fayramol 1,200 robti guddaaqa. oson inkih xayyoosaanam ayro caddo meteorolojih paarameterittel. waado le guddaaqah ixma, qunxa caddoh tekkookaa kee rakaakay weeloola baxsaluk dudda le gitah muucimtam maduudda. ta fanteenah retteemah rakiiboh bicsa sinaariyoh oytih gulgul ( ubul culma).

Hawa ceeloh butta: aydaaduu kee yamaatu waa wargu

RCP8.5 climate model ensemble, awayih uddur 17 takke simulationitte edde anuk, 1971 fanah sugte aydaadi simulationitte edde anuk, inkih tan simulation waktitteh addat 130 sanat fanah gexak sugte. RCP2.6 sinaariyoh butta maqnale gurral qunxa kah kinnim dago ardiyyi teetih geytima. Aydaadi waktih addat, awayih uddur, model ensemble kee observations fanat yan dadal fanat yan qeedaalisso xiqsissa. mango ascossitte taybulleem too ceelallo celtam mabul luk. tekkooka axcih racmatta qabaar taybulleem baxsa too ceelol qaki taybulle.

Hawa ceeloh butta

Rakaakay rosqah ceeloh butta

Rakaakay caddol rosqâ taqabitte foocâ fanah rosqâ dadalih gititteh addat (RCP snario) wagsiisak, baadal tan rosqâ modelitte (GCMs) kaxxa rakaakayittel axcih Awroppah addal geytimta. tah umman way aracat gactam fayya le fidgah rakaakay rosqah waleela (RCMs) satqot duqaysimak. Tama modelitte rakaakay caddol laqna kee robti qaynat wagsiisak sissin qaynatih qaynatitteh addat geytimta, topography kee ardi qaynatih qaynatitteh addat geytimta taqabitte meqennal geytimtaamih taagah.

fidin celsis oyta [ Awro-kordeksi]https://cds.rosqa.kopernikus.eu/oyti daffeyna/projectionitte-kordiksi-domaayin-inki-caddo?tab=oobisAwroppa, Jarman, kee federaal doolatitteh rosqâ ayfaafayitteh rakiiboh kee oytitte (tablo wagita) xayyoosa. Simulation wakti 1971 xabba haanam taarikih waktitteh addat geytimtaah, 2100 fanah yan waktih addat geytimtaah, kulli numtin amoh modelitte ittat geytimtaah, qilmi kee meteorologih dadal elle geytimta gurral geytimta. Qaynat, wakti garuq 30 sanat cubbit haak, ken milallaagu kee maqnisso baxxaaqissam 30×17=510 sanatih caddo. amo ladi caddo xalootitte rakaakayittel too nammayak inkih addâ milallaaguu kee moodeel asmat sinna.

toh nagay tamixxige too maknay hoxitte tan ceelalloolaa kee qeedaalisso fanat. aydaadi qeedaalissoh uddur, toh ixximaami massossuh ( massos) celsis caddo. oyti addat tanih tan afkanitte gexsitit daccarsimte. tah xissimte cogdaadi rosqâ taqabih kusaaqih addat ( Lange, 2019). tah kah kinnim giffol yaanam moodeel uncus dubuh yan xiqsissoosa hinna kusaaqih rosqâ moodelih ceelallo.

Ayrol oyti inkinnale firqanfiir raqteh massos moodeel caddo lih wagitto caddo. tah elle baxxaqimtem ginnimteh tan mayballah oytih koboxu. moodeel caddo wagitto firqanfiir fan tatrusoonuh, moodeel oyti naharak retteemah guddaaqa fan tatrusan. tah abtuh, xayikkel tan firqanfiir ximmoh caddo guddaaqa koobaahissoh mixxaagimte. culma lakal xayyowteh sitta ceela gital rakiiboh oytih koboxu. ta maaqatta tasmitem too celsis oyta kee wagitto oyti inkinnale arac ugdubay baaha. ta gurral, rosqâ dadal kartal xayyoowem kee muuci cibtal.

Namma qilmih modelitte RCP2.6 kee RCP8.5 sissin qaynatih qilmih addat Jarmanal qilmih qilmih addat geytimta. Takkel tan baxsitte wagitto kee celsiisenti dadalih fanat yan baxsi ta waktil calli akah yakkennah abaanam maduudumta, tamah sissin gexsititteh addat tan saynis ixxiga dadaltuh gexsit kinniimih taagah. Xer waktih qabar kataasah yan tekkooka awayih uddur kusaaqih addat tan sekteritteh addat tan rosqâ taqabih kusaaqih addat tan.

Miizi:Simulaasi matrix rakaakay caddol baadal tan modelitte (GCMs) rakaakay modelitte (RCMs) lih angaaraw le: RCP8.5 – 17 modelitte, RCP2.6 – 7 modelitte. uli EuroCordex ceelallo matan RCP sinaariyo foyyah yan booxaaxil.

Ossotinah kutbe:Lange, S.: Tabsi-dacayrih uncus massos kee loowo salac ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0), Geosci. ceelalloh dadal., 12, 3055-3070, 2019

Bandi fidna

Rakaakay caddol qilmih modelih ensemble RCP 2.6 sinaariyoh 7 simulation kee RCP 8.5 sinaariyoh 17 simulation edde anuk.

Rangees qimmol elle tamixxigem, model uncertainty kee addah (sanat-sanat) sissinaane ittat celsiisak, sissinaane, kee qimmok addah 10% kee 90% qimmooma dirab wakti sissinaaneh awlaytiino le. dubuk fanti caddo kartal tammulleeh tan. sanatih uddur kee model ensemble 17 simulation, tamah yaanam poolitte 17 x 30 = 510 sanat qimmoh addah qimmoh addah qimmoh addah qimmoh addah qimmoh addah qimmoh addah qimmoh addah poolitte geytimta.

Kassiiseena:wagitto waktih addat, rakaakay xalootitte dubuk addâ milallaaguk 30 sanatih caddo. ta aydaadih saduh, moodeel asmat sinna kee addâ baxsi sinaariyoh oytih addat tan caddo qimmissuh tengeleh.

culma

Ayrook ayro rosqâ oytittek geytimteh tan rosqâ ascossitte yaybulleenim, lowsis gubat tan oytitte elle geytimta aracal geytimta oytitte grid ximmooma fanah culsaanam faxximta. ken aracih fidga fayramol 4×4km, too fayya caddo dijital baaxoh moodelik kalah tan. gersiimih fanak, cogda beytam akkaawonti caddoodah caddo baxaabaxsa le fayyal guddaaqa retteemal. abinal culmak naharal, guddaaqa retteemah addat tan fayyah xalootitte bayteh. Tokkel sissin grid ximmol faxximta qimmo elle tamixxigem, baxsa le radius (cuggaane stationitte) addat tan istaashin oytitte qilsa le qimmol elle tamixxigem, tohih lakal qimmo elle tamixxigem istaashinwa ixximal kurruumak. Fayya le xalootitte lakal hadaf giriidil fayya le caddot rakitak abbinoowele.

Ossotinah kutbe:
Kiressi N., 1993, arooca oytih loowo, Wiley ittallakle numma kee loowo
https://assabalta.kawis sanad.org/cugaysoosa/pykrige/obsiyyi/pdf/ellecaboh/](https/assabalta.kawis sanad.org/cugaysoosa/pykrige/obisitte/pdf/ellecabo/

mayballah oyta

Aydaadi wagitto rosqâ dadalih, rosqâ footimal xayyowte, elle rakittam fanteena oyti DWD qeedaalissoh retteemah exxak sugte 1961 xabba haanam.
oson ayrol caddo xayyoosan meteorolojih paarameteritte fayramol 220 sinoptiik guddaaqa kee fayramol 1,200 robti guddaaqa.
Tama istaashin oytitte elle geytimta aracal, topograafih caalat wagsiisak, kaxxa-kaxxa qaynatih oytitte elle geytimta aracal, homogenization kee spatial interpolation elle geytimta aracal geytimta. cuggaane guddaaqak nihiritte hangi kah cultem homogenization kee interpolation uddur. geytimeh yan rosqah ascossih cisab elle yakkem ayrook ayroh oytih rakiiboh. Takkem xiqtah tan gabâ taama cankâ caagiidal baytam maduudda.